ABSTRACT
The relationship between the economies of various countries and their dependence on the world markets indicate that for econometric analysis of the impact of external shocks on a particular economy, it is necessary to use a model of the global economy. The aim of this paper is to build a global vector autoregression model (GVAR), including Russia as one of the regions, and to obtain the impact of some external economic shocks on Russian macroeconomic indicators. We build a model that includes 41 of the world's major economies, including Russia, and the oil market. The special features of our model are structural shifts in the dynamics of Russian output and the new specification of oil supply and oil demand. Impulse response functions are used to obtain quantitative estimates. In this paper, we analyze the reaction of outputs, oil production volumes and oil prices in response to the output shocks of China and the United States. In response to the negative shock of output in the world's leading economies, outputs in the rest of the world declined for at least the first year after the shock. There was also a significant decline in oil prices and no significant change in oil production volumes in most countries. In addition, as part of the conditional forecast, we estimated the impact of the decline in global demand due to the Covid-19 pandemic on the Russian GDP as 1,3% drop. The rest of the decline in Russian GDP can be attributed to the internal effects of the pandemic (lockdown). We also obtained a scenario forecast of the dynamics of Russian GDP depending on a decrease in trade and Russian oil price discount, within which the fall in Russian output could reach 3.3% in 2022. © 2023 Publishing House of the Higher School of Economics. All rights reserved.
ABSTRACT
The relationship between the economies of various countries and their dependence on the world markets indicate that for econometric analysis of the impact of external shocks on a particular economy, it is necessary to use a model of the global economy. The aim of this paper is to build a global vector autoregression model (GVAR), including Russia as one of the regions, and to obtain the impact of some external economic shocks on Russian macroeconomic indicators. We build a model that includes 41 of the world's major economies, including Russia, and the oil market. The special features of our model are structural shifts in the dynamics of Russian output and the new specification of oil supply and oil demand. Impulse response functions are used to obtain quantitative estimates. In this paper, we analyze the reaction of outputs, oil production volumes and oil prices in response to the output shocks of China and the United States. In response to the negative shock of output in the world's leading economies, outputs in the rest of the world declined for at least the first year after the shock. There was also a significant decline in oil prices and no significant change in oil production volumes in most countries. In addition, as part of the conditional forecast, we estimated the impact of the decline in global demand due to the Covid-19 pandemic on the Russian GDP as 1,3% drop. The rest of the decline in Russian GDP can be attributed to the internal effects of the pandemic (lockdown). We also obtained a scenario forecast of the dynamics of Russian GDP depending on a decrease in trade and Russian oil price discount, within which the fall in Russian output could reach 3.3% in 2022. © 2023 Publishing House of the Higher School of Economics. All rights reserved.
ABSTRACT
Purpose. To assess the possibilities of ultrasound examination of the lungs in the diagnosis of COVID-19 pathological changes. Materials and methods. 65 patients (50 women and 15 men) with suspected novel coronavirus infection (COVID-19), underwent ultrasound and MSCT of the lungs with an interval of no more than 24 hours, were included at the study. The patients were divided into two groups: The 1st group included 48 patients at the stage of the onset and progression of pneumonia, the 2nd group - 17 patients with signs of recovery - normalization of oxygen saturation on spontaneous breathing, decrease in body temperature (below 37.5°C). Results. Changes in the lungs detected by ultrasound and MSCT were compared, and the correlation of these changes with lung function, assessed by blood saturation, the need for oxygen insufflation, non-invasive and mechanical ventilation, was studied. In patients without signs of recovery, ultrasound severity corresponded to the severi-ty of MSCT. In patients with signs of recovery, the US-severity is less than the MSCT severi-ty by at least 25% in most cases. When comparing patients with signs of recovery and those at the onset of the dis-ease, significant differences in ultrasound severity were revealed (1.17 versus 2.1, respec-tively, p = 0.01). It is important that the differences in MSCT severity in these groups are not significant. A correlation was found between the degree of respiratory failure and ultrasound se-verity both in the general group of patients and in subgroups. The higher the degree of res-piratory failure, the greater the US-severity, P = 0.00001. Conclusion. Ultrasound of the lungs allows one to suspect COVID-19 pneumonia, which is especially important during a pandemic. In patients at the onset and peak of pneumonia, the ultrasound severity of the disease, assessed by the area of the lesion, corre-sponds to the severity of MSCT. In patients with signs of recovery, ultrasound severity is significantly less than the severity of MSCT and is more strongly correlated with impaired lung function.